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“Land monopoly is not only monopoly,
but it is by far the greatest of monopolies; it is a perpetual monopoly, and it
is the mother of all other forms of monopoly.”…Winston Churchill.
“Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your
enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.”... Warren Buffet.
Well, two quotes by two great names all the time though for
different reasons & different profession but one quality was same &
that are, leading the path! If Churchill lead the path to glory for England in
war time it Buffet who lead the path of investments & got glory for USA on
trade (read business) front! Yet when its real estate look what Churchill has
said long back, it seems our current ruler (read govt) has started from where
Churchill has left the job undone i.e. breaking up monopoly in land means real
estate! And it’s at such times when real estate’s big bosses are also nervous I
think we must recall the words of Buffet & that’s why to start my sharing
on real estate’s future I used both of these quotes!
Of-late many (read most) people asks me what’s going to happen
with real estate & the tone is like when we inquire about some patient who
is bed ridden for long & we can see he is sick but can’t find the reason as
neither family persons nor the doctors are sharing the truth (read are able to)
about the patient’s health & diagnosis!
I am no expert or doctor here when the patient is real estate
but then I sure can identify a patient when I see one (most of us can do that
actually) & here as being in the profession of real estate i.e. “the
patient”, now for more than twenty five years, I can think of few things which
might help us understanding the nature of the disease as then
only we can think of right treatment! First & foremost rule here is, any
business in this country is run by the “Mai Baap” Govt’s attitude towards the
country (read voters) & real estate is also no exception to this rule! You
will what’s big deal, is it not applicable to all the countries, well answer is
no! In USA govt do bows in-front of some group of industries (read
industrialists) & these industries do think in the best of not just their
business but the country, well mostly! Same is case with any developed country
rather that’s the reason those countries are developed & we are carrying
the tag of under development country for decades now! For decades real estate
was a milky cow & everyone has milked it, till it got dry & when I say
everyone then it includes right from the builders, land-lords, suppliers,
contractors, investors, professionals like charted accountants as well
architects & consultants, media (news papers), banks even govt too has
earned a lot from real estate; barring two segments & they are end users
which we call flat buyers & the labors which were actually working on the
site with their hands! If builders have earned by sale of homes then land-lords
have earned by just holding the lands on which these homes were build,
suppliers, manufactures have earned by huge sales of their goods, contractors
have earned (though bit less than others), professionals have earned charging
hefty fees to their builder clients, banks has bleed the builders(their fault
actually) by charging high interest rates whereas investors made merry by
selling the homes at double rate they have bought, media earned by full page
advertisements of project launches & then govt wasn’t also behind, charging
for every rupee in every possible way from stamp duty to income tax & has
earned out of real estate a lot. In all
this milking of real estate as I mentioned two segments left behind rather they
too got milked & one is actual end site labor who some thirty years back
used to live in tin hutments at site & continues to live so even today
& second is actual flat buyer who bought all these homes with every-bodies
profit loaded on it & end up paying EMI’s for the same for rest of his or
her life!
Many of my friends related in anyways with real estate won’t
like my above analysis but tell me in which other industry other than real estate,
rate of the product increases two or three times over just one or two years
time span & without adding any tangible technological or such quality value
addition to that product! It was only real estate enjoying such luck because the land was
& is limited, population was increasing, jobs are limited & available in
some locations only & same is the story with basic infrastructure like
water, roads, electricity, transportation as well schools & medical
facilities. Obviously land at such locations became in demand more than the
supply & then entire above chain of professions benefitted just because
they were in right position at right time (actually wrong position) &
milked the cow(read earned)! Indeed the millions of home buyers did get their
homes in the process but look within ourselves (all those who didn’t like my
logic) & ask was those homes fairly priced? And the answer you will get (if
you have courage to look within) will tell the reason for patient’s i.e. real
estate’s disease’s diagnosis!
The problem with
real estate is the people related to real estate are not used to survive on
lesser margins i.e. lesser money & neither these real estate men were used
to wait for the clients! Let’s look at above chain again from today’s scenario,
landlords were used to behave like owner of some rare antic piece in auction
for their piece of land which with queue of bidder raising the price every day
& now there are no takers for their land! Same is story for all other chain
links i.e. professions as today suppliers & contractors run behind the
builders for orders which has dried up & then there is threat looming that
if payment doesn’t come in time then what as on one side there is no order
without payment facility & on other side no post order payment assurance
from the builders, so they are stuck! Professionals has been charging big fees
but now there are no new project launches, even to recover earlier fees is a
problem so they are in fix. Banks have stopped financing real estate but they
have to pay interest on their deposits, what if there are no loan takers, so
banks are in fix. NBFC’s & investors are worst hit as they are already
worried about their unsecured loans to the builders as well stock of incomplete
homes with no takers with the rate they have got in mind! Media has got hit
worst as open any new paper & you will hardly find any builder’s advertise,
so the revenues from real estate are all time low as well they have to compete
digital media which is far cheap & wide reaching! Builders which like a
tiger in forest are at apex of the real estate chain & just tigers are
running around the forests in search of water & food are running around in
search of clients & finance is a naked truth! In this entire situation just
one segment is less hit, I meant comparatively & obviously that is our
govt! As its increasing taxes & it gets cut from every deal related to real
estate though the local body’s reduced income via development charges &
premiums is a warning that govt also won’t be spared if real estate gets sick!
And now let’s see
why this has happened to real estate & sole reason is everybody related to
real estate must now learn to rework on their age old success formula as well
reduce their greed not just a bit but a bit lot! Margins won’t be
ever same again as this govt is following Mr. Churchil on land monopoly policy
& will be making more & more land available to build homes which
eventually will (rather has) bring loads of supply of raw material for the
homes in market which will be way above than demand! Remember, what happened to
every other market when competition got open, right from cell phone to cars to
two wheelers to white goods, every segment was flooded by the manufacturers
& rates come down of every such product. This has two way impacts, buyers
got more choice & no monopoly is there in any market other than real
estate. At the same time these businesses didn’t die but flourished as the makers
as well all other chain members of respective business get used to work on
lesser margins & earn by excelling in manufacturing! The newer markets’ has
been tapped & the makers tried to reach out by themselves to the clients
than waiting for the clients! Everything related with the product is done
keeping the end user (read client) as center of attraction & then only the
businesses have got back on normal. And the companies (even giants) which
couldn’t follow the change has vanished from the market, Nokia or Aircell are
best of the examples from growing field like mobile industry or service
provider. And at the same time as Buffet said using these situations as boon,
companies like Geo has emerged as new giants in the very same business where
Nokia & Aircell got wiped out! In auto industries also we saw companies
like Maharashtra Scooter which used to make famous “Priya” scooter got shut
down but today Piaggio’s Vespa & Honda’s Activa scooters are selling like
hot cake! The story of Royal Enfield i.e. Bullet motorcycle is even better,
once ruler of the market in heavy bike segment, then got tagged as old
fashioned & just when the company was on closer, it rise like phoenix &
today once again has become a most sought after brand in bikes, which has a
steep competition from many players!
Real estate makers
should (read must) learn from stories like Reliance Geo or Royal Enfield
as they used their respective difficult market conditions in their favor &
this needs market study, a keen eye on what’s trending in the mind of govt
& forthcoming policies as well giving the clients what they want in
their budget & yet make some money! And for that real estate bosses
needs to focus on data & lots of it regarding client’s needs across the
country. As unlike any other product real
estate is very local thing & depends on numbers of local issues like
infrastructure, education, jobs & even culture of the place & that’s
why I will restrict my sharing to Pune though it is applicable to any city with
minor modifications! A city like Pune has all the above growth related factors
right in place, one just needs to come up with right home, that’s the challenge
real estate is facing! And when we say right home it must not be from our side
only as for a builder a right home is the one which sales fast & doubles
the money invested! A right home is from the sight of the buyer who is real
user of the home today & not some investor whose target is sale it off for
money! And when you start looking towards the home from the angle of buyer then
you see what’s the difference in past & today as here you have to judge
buying capacity of the end user, his needs, his other expenses like kid’s
school fees, car’s EMI & week end spending as well some savings. Keeping
all these intact he has to buy a home & pay EMI for the same, is what we
need to understand.
At the same time the
builders need to make their pressure groups for the govt who is still
unaffected from the downfall of real estate & busy in increasing every
possible tax as well premiums on it. And in return on the front of
infrastructure we are zero even in Smart City like ours is a fact. Just one Metro is
not going to change life of millions, indeed its one of the aspect but still
water, drainage, good roads, education, medical facility, power & many such
things are not evenly distributed in the city making the end buyer spend much
more other than EMI of home loan, making him restrain from buying homes in such
locations! And do mind to create pressure group for govt first the real estate
must earn respect in the eyes of its own clients i.e. masses as its this
respect of masses is real strength for any industry while dealing with wrong
doings of govt!
As for the buyer
(and govt) all I will say, just making homes cheaper should not be the target
but to make the homes affordable to both sides is what must be the target while
making real estate policies! Do mind, greed isn’t monopoly of
builders as even the clients becomes greedy when they see a dying builder (read
desperate for money) & they try to make him bleed as much they can by
negotiating, is also a fact & many of us has witnessed it! Not always a
cheaper home is the best, as ask thousands of people leaving in illegal homes
& consequences of their decision to opt for cheaper home! Actually its
failure of the govt in first place that they have made a system which can’t
produce a legal home which is affordable to the buyer as well to the
manufacturer & outcome is illegal homes increasing numbers everyday! Still
time has not run out totally, form a body which will have enough wise people
from the industry on it & make a policy as millions of people still needs a
home of their own & thousands of people are ready to build these homes, all
we need is a system (read policy) which will make this happen! Till then real
estate guys, focus on making a home which the client is looking for & parallel,
keep the fight on with govt to provide infrastructure necessary to sale these
homes! At the same time don’t run behind every land deal like its last piece of
earth as that only will make land-lords realize no more monopoly. At the same
time give the customer value for his money which includes transparent &
fair service also & yes innovate as that’s the key & then sure the
future is not that bad but silver if not golden! A home is first of
the basic needs of any specie & not just humans, so the home makers won’t
ever starve is a fact; just know the art of building in bit better way, is the
gist!
--
Sanjay
Deshpande
Sanjeevani Dev.
Please view my sharing about real estate in Pune at U-Tube link below..
Please view my sharing about real estate in Pune at U-Tube link below..
Please do visit my blogs to know about our philosophy at Sanjeevani ! (Click the links below)
http://jivnachadrushtikon.blogspot.in/
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